With 16 months left till the Elections 2022, and the new House district lines not yet drawn, the fight for Congress is most likely be based on the outcomes in four key states. At the fundamental level, every state is of equal importance in the Senate, and the Republicans require just a single seat to get to the majority.
Every significant recruitment development will quickly impact the handicapping of a race and the fight for power. Nevertheless, there are a few states that are less dependent on a single candidate.
Similarly, every seat matters in the House. Currently, Republicans require a gain of five seats for a majority—a small number in a body of 435 members, which favors the party out of the White House. Additionally, a few states like Texas are of particular importance to the chambers. However, a handful of states hosting competitive races will affect control of both the Senate and the House.
After winning an essential runoff on January 5, Georgia helped Democrats gain control of the Senate. And Online bookmakers feel Sen. Raphael Warnock could be a prime Republican target in 2022 beside Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, Warnock, who won a unique election cycle and is bidding for a full-term next year.
Georgia couldn’t bag or lose a seat in reapportionment. But, it is a critical state to watch for redistricting and the overall fight to control the House. With Republicans controlling the process, it is worth waiting to see how aggressive they will really be. They are also most likely to draw either the 6th or the 7th District to be firmly Democratic and the other district to become more competitive. This would potentially give Republicans a net of one seat in an environment where every seat matters.
The Tar Heel State bagged a seat in reapportionment, enabling the Republicans to gain control of the mapmaking and turning North Carolina into a state to watch. Currently, Republicans highlight an 8-5 edge in the House delegation after the court forced the map to be redrawn before the 2020 elections. What’s more, the Democrats also bagged two seats as a result.
Since the map was redrawn, a few observers didn’t anticipate dramatic changes. However, the chances are Republicans wouldn’t try to push another seat into their column. Now, this will be pretty challenging as far as the population growth among Democratic-leaning voters is considered. Nevertheless, if the GOP succeeds, the party will get an inch closer to nearly half of what it requires to win the House Majority in North Carolina alone.
North Carolina also acts as a battleground to the Senate race with two competitive primaries. As GOP binding Richard M. Burr isn’t running for re-election, a competitive seat in a State Trump will be left behind that can be won with one point.
Over the past decade, Republicans have been winning all the giant state-wide races in the Sunshine State. However, that doesn’t mean they can take the state for granted. This applies to Sen. Marco Rubio, who just entered the general election with the lead. Nevertheless, his party’s thin margins and the ambiguity of Trump’s alliance becoming when the former president is not on the ballot should be closely considered.
Democrats are thrilled about their most probable nominee, Rep. Val B. Demings. Nonetheless, the burden of proof on their shoulders to depict how they will win state-wide in Florida, primarily when the national environment works against them, is worth watching.
All these scenarios make Florida a crucial state in the power struggle for the House. As of now, Republicans are in control of redrawing the map, which includes an additional seat because of reapportionment. They might want to expand their 16-11 delegation advantage, and at the same time, they will have to put in a lot of effort to get there.
They will have to sore up one of their two freshmen in South Florida, and open new opportunities in Central Florida with a new or seat, by making Democrat Charlie Crist’s Tampa seat more competitive or targeting Democrat Stephanie Murphy. The Democrats will also have to minimize their losses in Florida to have any chance of holding the House.